Welcome to logic.rforge!
- Last Updated on Monday, 27 March 2017 13:49
- Published on Tuesday, 31 July 2012 22:00
This is the personal academic homepage of Dr. Roland Poellinger, researcher in the project group Philosophy of Pharmacology (ERC grant 639276) at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy (MCMP/LMU) and associate faculty member of the Doctoral School of Philosophy at the University of Pécs, Hungary (PTE). His main research interests center around philosophy of science (causal modeling and probabilistic reasoning in Bayesian networks) and logic (algorithmic methods and computability). In 2016/17 he is teaching formal epistemology as well as topics from the philosophy of causality at LMU Munich and giving a course on causal inference in Bayesian networks at the Forum for Artificial Intelligence Research, University of Stellenbosch (South Africa), before visiting the University of Groningen (The Netherlands) for research in April and May 2017. He is exploring ways of communicating science across audiences to shape new channels for mathematical philosophy. [More in About]
Published in EJPS: "Epistemology of Causal Inference in Pharmacology"
- Last Updated on Monday, 27 March 2017 14:05
- Published on Monday, 27 March 2017 14:00
The paper Epistemology of Causal Inference in Pharmacology: Towards a Framework for the Assessment of Harms (47 pages; joint work by Jürgen Landes, Barbara Osimani, and Roland Poellinger) was just published in the European Journal for Philosophy of Science. From the abstract:
Philosophical discussions on causal inference in medicine are stuck in dyadic camps, each defending one kind of evidence or method rather than another as best support for causal hypotheses. Whereas Evidence Based Medicine advocates the use of Randomised Controlled Trials and systematic reviews of RCTs as gold standard, philosophers of science emphasise the importance of mechanisms and their distinctive informational contribution to causal inference and assessment. Some have suggested the adoption of a pluralistic approach to causal inference, and an inductive rather than hypothetico-deductive inferential paradigm. However, these proposals deliver no clear guidelines about how such plurality of evidence sources should jointly justify hypotheses of causal associations. We here develop such guidelines by first giving a philosophical analysis of the underpinnings of Hill’s (1965) viewpoints on causality. We then put forward an evidence-amalgamation framework adopting a Bayesian net approach to model causal inference in pharmacology for the assessment of harms. Our framework accommodates a number of intuitions already expressed in the literature concerning the EBM vs. pluralist debate on causal inference, evidence hierarchies, causal holism, relevance (external validity), and reliability.
Auf Du und Du mit Statistik und Co. (April 2017)
- Last Updated on Monday, 27 March 2017 14:09
- Published on Monday, 08 February 2016 15:54
Im Sommersemester 2017 veranstaltet das Studienbüro Statistik zusammen mit dem Center for Mathematical Philosophy (MCMP) der LMU erneut das Propädeutikum "Auf Du und Du mit Statistik und Co." als Einführung in formal(isiert)es Denken und empirisches Argumentieren.
Idee und Motivation: Formale Techniken und Argumentationen besitzen auch in den Sozial-, Geistes- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften eine große, und immer weiter wachsende, Bedeutung, stellen aber für viele, darauf nicht so gut vorbereitete Studierende eine sehr große Hürde dar. Im Rahmen eines fachübergreifenden Propädeutikums sollen nichtmathematikaffine Studierende der LMU sanft in die Formalisierung eingeführt und mit wesentlichen Techniken (wieder) vertraut gemacht werden.
Roland Poellinger to speak at the Forum for Artificial Intelligence Research 2016 (Stellenbosch, South Africa)
- Last Updated on Wednesday, 14 December 2016 16:41
- Published on Wednesday, 14 December 2016 16:30
Roland Poellinger is giving a course on causal reasoning in Bayesian networks at FAIR, the Forum for Artificial Intelligence Research in Stellenbosch, South Africa, 28-30 November, 2016. The forum with the topic “Causality: Bayesian Networks as Platform for Knowledge Representation in Science and Philosophy” is organized by the Center for Artifical Intelligence Research (CAIR) and the University of Pretoria.
Seminar on the Probability of Game-Theoretic Probability (March/April 2016)
- Last Updated on Wednesday, 17 August 2016 12:16
- Published on Monday, 08 February 2016 15:03
In March, 2016, Roland Poellinger will teach topics from the “Philosophy of Game-Theoretic Probability” (co-teaching with Barbara Osimani and Jürgen Landes; co-organized with Prof. Dr. Thomas Augustin from LMU’s department of statistics). The core of the seminar will consist of a lecture series on the philosophy of game-theoretic probability by guest lecturer Glenn Shafer (Rutgers). Students of LMU Munich can sign up for this course through LMU’s LSF system and earn ECTS credit points for participation plus essay.
Recording of "The Mind-Brain Entanglement" on iTunes
- Last Updated on Thursday, 03 July 2014 12:50
- Published on Monday, 26 May 2014 07:07
The recording of Roland Poellinger's talk on "The Mind-Brain Entanglement" (at LMU Munich, 14 May 2014) is now online and freely available on iTunes U and LMUcast: Click here to download the file or watch the video online.
Abstract: Listing The Nonreductivist’s Troubles with Mental Causation (1993) Jaegwon Kim suggested that the only remaining alternatives are the eliminativist’s standpoint or plain denial of the mind’s causal powers if we want to uphold the closure of the physical and reject causal overdetermination at the same time. Nevertheless, explaining stock market trends by referring to investors’ fear of loss is a very familiar example of attributing reality to both domains and acknowledging the mind’s interaction with the world: "if you pick a physical event and trace its causal ancestry or posterity, you may run into mental events" (Kim 1993). In this talk I will use the formal framework of Bayes net causal models in an interventionist understanding (as devised, e.g., by Judea Pearl in Causality, 2000) to make the concept of causal influence precise. Investigating structurally similar cases of conflicting causal intuitions will motivate a natural extension of the interventionist Bayes net framework, Causal Knowledge Patterns, in which our intuition that the mind makes a difference finds an expression.
Update: More than 600 views and downloads of the recording in the first 10 days online! Thanks!
"Formal Informal: Inductive Logic and Probabilities" | MCMP joint event with Foundations of Statistics (12 July, 2012)
- Last Updated on Monday, 29 June 2015 08:13
- Published on Tuesday, 12 June 2012 22:00
On Thursday, 12 July, 2012, the MCMP is meeting the LMU Stats Department once again: The second edition of our series "Formal Informal" will center about "Inductive Logic and Probabilities" this time. Join us for the discussion in an open round at 6:30pm, Alte Bibliothek, room 245 (Ludwigstraße 33). Presenters will be Karine Fradet (Philosophy, Université de Montrèal), Frederik Herzberg (Math. Economics, Bielefeld/MCMP), and Christina Schneider (Philosophy & Statistics, LMU).
From the manifesto: Carnap, who occupies a central place in the development of inductive logic, showed that the disagreements between the interpretation of probabilities as a state of the world and as a state of knowledge of the observer were vain since they were not about the same concept. He concentrated on the second of these two concepts, inductive probabilities, drew the foundations of inductive logic, systematized aspects and approaches, and presented the different methods not as competing against each other, but as part of a system, each perspective being a point on the continuum of the inductive methods.
This edition of Formal Informal will collect, sort, and discuss foundations, applications, and problems of inductive methodology, bridging views from philosophy and statistics.
Download the invitation here as a PDF document.