mcmpstat-dept

Jan-Willem Romeijn (University of Groningen) will give a talk at the joint event of the Research Seminar on Foundations of Statistics (LMU Statistics Department) and the MCMP Colloquium titled "Frequencies, Chances, and Undefinable Sets" (organization: Roland Poellinger). The talk will take place on 21 July, 18 c.t., in Ludwigstr. 31 (room 225) after coffee and cake in the "Alte Bibliothek" of the statistics department (room 245) at 17h. Download the invitation with the abstract as a PDF here!
non-causal-knowledge_smallOn occasion of the workshop on computational metaphysics (June 11th 2011), Roland Poellinger will give a talk titled "Computing Non-Causal Knowledge for Causal Reasoning". The workshop at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy (MCMP) featured speakers like Ed Zalta from Stanford and Stephan Hartmann from Tilburg. Watch the talk online on iTunes U!

alg_bayesnet

Am 5. Mai 2011 findet eine weitere Session in der "Research Seminar Series on Foundations of Statistics" am Institut für Statistik der LMU statt. Roland Poellinger wird unter dem Titel "Strukturen kausalen Wissens" zum Thema Bayesnetze und automatisierbare Kausalinferenz sprechen:

Die Frage nach der Ontologie oder der Beschreibung von Kausalzusammenhängen kreist immer wieder um das Verhältnis von Determinismus und (ontologischem oder deskriptiven) Indeterminismus innerhalb einer Theorie der Verursachung. Einige prominente Ansätze gründen die Kausalanalyse allein auf Korrelationen oder auf geeignet eingeschränkte Anforderungen an statistische Abhängigkeiten. Etliche Fallstricke und kontraintuitive Gegenbeispiele vereiteln allerdings dieses Vorhaben und erzwingen weitere Methodenverfeinerung. Judea PEARL (2000/2009) basiert seinen Analyseansatz auf die Abbildung von statistischen Abhängigkeiten in so genannten Bayesnetzen und formuliert seinen deterministischen Kausalbegriff mithilfe von systematischen, strukturellen Manipulationen solcher Bayesnetze.
Der Vortrag soll als "Work-in-Progress" auf das Format der Bayesnetze eingehen, automatische Verfahren der Netzgenerierung vorstellen und dies in den Zusammenhang mit einem deterministischen Verständnis von Kausalität bringen, welches im Kern (notwendigerweise) epistemisch ausgerichtet ist.


title

Lehrstuhl für Logik und Sprachphilosophie / LMU München
27. Januar 2011 / 17:00-20:00 Uhr / Ludwigstraße 31 / Raum 225

Patenschaft: Hans Rott / Organisation: Roland Poellinger

17:00 Georgios Karageorgoudis
Mögliche Welten, Konditionale und nicht-normale Systeme

17:45 Pause

18:00 Stefan Ruhland
Ist Kausalität eine absolute Relation?

18:45 Roland Poellinger
Kommentar zu Stefan Ruhland

Chair: Andreas Pietz

danach Diskussion

 

Ende gegen 20:00
Abschluss mit gemeinsamem Abendessen (im Vinorant Alter Hof)

Download

Programmposter als PDF

causal_relations_teaserThe Workshop "Concrete Causation" on July 9, 2010, at the Seminar for Philosophy, Logic, and Philosophy of Science (LMU Munich) will be followed by a seminar (Proseminar) on causal modeling (in English language) in the winter semester 2010/11.

For more information about enrollment and the topics of the seminar click here

cc_plakat

Speakers (Click on the post-it icon to access further information):

  • 9.00: C. Ulises Moulines (Munich)
    Welcome Address; download as PDF022
  • 9.15: Roland Poellinger (Munich)
    Graphs as Models of Interventions 042
    Chair: C. Ulises Moulines
  • 10.05: Jan-Willem Romeijn (Groningen)
    Modelling Experimental Interventions: Results and Challenges 042
    Chair: Roland Poellinger
  • 11.25: Mathias Frisch (University of Maryland)
    Causation in Physics 042
    Chair: Roland Poellinger
  • 13.20: Michael Baumgartner (Konstanz)
    The Causal Chain Problem 042
    Chair: Godehard Link
  • 14.40: Charlotte Werndl (Oxford)
    Causality and Observational Equivalence of Deterministic and Indeterministic Descriptions 042
    Chair: Godehard Link
  • 16.00: Wolfgang Spohn (Konstanz)
    A Ranking-theoretic Account of Deterministic Causation 042
    with final discussion
    Chair: Godehard Link

Motivation:

In his study of causation J. L. Mackie once referred back to David Hume, who listed causation among one of the principles that are TO US THE CEMENT OF THE UNIVERSE and thus OF VAST CONSEQUENCE IN THE SCIENCE OF HUMAN NATURE (David Hume, AN ABSTRACT OF A “TREATISE OF HUMAN NATURE”). Yet for example the early endeavours of the developers of the Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) framework, which aimed at embedding causal meaning into the formal treatment, seem to be neglected, and David Lewis' counterfactual analysis of causation based on his possible worlds semantics does not come very handy for application. As Judea Pearl summarises: WE ARE WITNESSING ONE OF THE MOST BIZARRE CIRCLES IN THE HISTORY OF SCIENCE: CAUSALITY IN SEARCH OF A LANGUAGE AND, SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE LANGUAGE OF CAUSALITY IN SEARCH OF ITS MEANING (Judea Pearl, CAUSALITY, 2000). Borrowing mathematical rigour from statistics, one of the most prominent areas of causal modelling today sounds out the interaction of probabilistic and deterministic approaches and is centred around Bayesian Networks, through which causal notions can be identified concretely and utilized for various disciplines eventually.

Info for LMU Students: Winter Semester 2010/11

The workshop "Concrete Causation" will be followed by a Proseminar "Modeling Causal Relations" (in English language) in the winter semester 2010/11. For more information about enrollment and the topics of the course click here.

Video Recordings

badge_itunes-lrg Click on the left icon to access the videos on iTunes U, or click below to open the files in various other formats (LMUcast Flash Player with speaker/screen split "Fl", Quicktime, and iPod format).

Programme/Poster Download:

Location Map:

[Show Workshop "Concrete Causation" on a larger map]

LMU Munich, Main Building Seminar for Philosophy, Logic and Philosophy of Science Conference Room, M210 (MKE), Main Building Conference Hotel (Lettl)
Dinner Venue Munich Central Station City Center: Marienplatz (Trains U3, U6, and S-Bahn)


Finding your Way around:

Sponsored by

Kindly supported by

Langenscheidt ... weil Sprachen verbindenemptyMünchner Kompetenzzentrum Ethik der LMU

Graphic Design by

rforge-logo-for-logic


rforge Multi Media
Photo: © Tommy Leong – Fotolia.com