Combining heterogeneous data is an important task in many sciences: neuroscience, econometrics, climatology, etc. Together with Samuel C. Fletcher and Jürgen Landes, Roland Poellinger compiled a special issue on this very topic for the philosophical journal Synthese. Under the title "Evidence Amalgamation in the Sciences", the compilation of 13 contributions was published in June 2018, complete with an in-depth intro by Sam, Jürgen, and Roland. Find the published version of the introduction here and the pre-print version as a PDF for download here.

The paper on "Real and Virtual Clinical Trials: A Formal Analysis" (together with Barbara Osimani, Marta Bertolaso, and Emanuele Frontoni) was published in Topoi in May 2018. In this paper we conclude that In Silico Clinical Trials and Randomized Clinical Trials cannot replace one another but are complementary in that the former provides information about the determinants of variability of causal effects, while the latter can, under certain conditions, establish causality in the first place. Find abstract and published version of "Real and Virtual Clinical Trials" online here.

The paper Epistemology of Causal Inference in Pharmacology: Towards a Framework for the Assessment of Harms (by Jürgen Landes, Barbara Osimani, and Roland Poellinger) was published in early 2017 in the European Journal for Philosophy of Science. Find the published version online here or check out the pre-print version on the PhilSci archive server. Roland Poellinger's talk on Probabilistic Causal Inference from Heterogeneous Evidence, based on the EJPS article, was recorded at the workshop on Mechanisms in Medicine (Canterbury, July 2017) and can be watched online here.

Analogical arguments are important and often-used vehicles of knowledge transfer in the sciences, especially when direct evidence is hard to come by. The paper on "Analogy-Based Inference Patterns in Pharmacological Research" (currently in press) explores within a formal Bayesian framework different analogy-based inference patterns with respect to their justification in medical risk assessment (download a pre-print version of the paper here). Addressing related questions, the working paper on "Bayesian Confirmation from Analog Models" (together with Cameron Beebe) presents a way of formally modeling how an empirically inaccessible system can be investigated via analogy. The case study from quantum physics illustrates how an extension of the Bayes net framework can be used to model Bayesian confirmation across intertheoretical bridges. In the paper, the same extended framework is used to discuss theoretical pre-unification via analogical reasoning. A draft of the working paper (2017) can be downloaded here. By the way: The following entry illuminates the formal background ...

The poster on "Variable Entanglement in Bayes Net Causal Models" was presented at the conference on "Conditional Independence Structures and Extremes" (TUM 2016). It summarizes the mathematical concepts underlying the idea of "non-causal" elements in causal graphs (find the abstract here).

Roland Poellinger's article Moralisches Entscheiden in künstlichen Systemen appeared in merz 4/2016 (edited by Roland Bader and Klaus Lutz).

Roland's thoughts on Anchoring Causal Connections in Physical Concepts (together with Mario Hubert) have been published in New Directions in the Philosophy of Science (edited by Galavotti, Dieks, Gonzalez, Hartmann, Uebel, and Weber).

A preprint of Unboxing the Concepts in Newcomb’s Paradox: Causation, Prediction, Decision in Causal Knowledge Patterns can be downloaded from the PhilSci archive server.

Roland Poellinger's dissertation Concrete Causation. About the Structures of Causal Knowledge is available in LMU's edoc library. If you want to get a quick overview over motivation and mathematical framework, check out the video recording (mp4) of the tandem session with Michael Strevens on "Unifying Causal and Non-Causal Knowledge" (MCMP workshop "Bridges", September 2014, New York City).

Roland's talk on The Mind-Brain Entanglement (mp4) at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy has been recorded and can be found online on MCMP's LMUcast portal.


Find more texts, talks, and presentations by Roland Poellinger on Academia.edu; for a complete list have a look at the CV PDF under About.

Analogical arguments are ubiquitous vehicles of knowledge transfer in science and medicine.